Investment Strategy

Real Estate Investing at an Inflation Inflection Point

April 08, 2022

By Joe Zidle and Nadeem Meghji

We believe it’s critical for investors to consider whether their portfolios are positioned for persistent inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, and market volatility.

April 08, 2022

By Joe Zidle and Nadeem Meghji

The Drivers of Elevated Inflation and Rising Rates

Inflation remains elevated due to stubborn supply chain bottlenecks, energy shortages, and rising commodity costs. In the U.S., “sticky” components of inflation continue to accelerate, including shelter prices and wages. Given the strength of the economy and the likelihood of persistent inflation, it’s likely that the Fed will tighten monetary policy significantly. Historically, periods of inflationary upturns suggest a higher 10-year Treasury yield.[ 1 ] To counter the prevailing headwinds that are likely to challenge market returns, investors may want to consider the potential benefits of shorter-duration assets, industries with secular growth and thematic investing.

Figure 1: Inflation on the Rise in 2021
Consensus forecast is for inflation in 2022 to reach the highest level since 1990, significantly greater than the 15 year average

Source: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure referenced is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 12/31/2021. Estimate for 2022 CPI represents the median consensus economic forecast, as compiled by Bloomberg, as of 2/28/2022.

What does inflation mean for real estate?

Real estate can offer dynamic cash flows. Unlike traditional bonds that generate fixed cash flows, the income streams from real estate can rise over time. Prioritizing assets with shorter lease durations in sectors with strong underlying growth fundamentals can provide the opportunity to regularly reset rents to prevailing market rates in an inflationary environment. Hotels effectively have one-night leases. Other sectors, such as residential and industrial, also tend to have shorter-duration leases. Certain assets with longer duration leases, such as net lease properties, often include contractual rent escalators to mitigate inflationary risks.

Sector selection matters. Residential and industrial are two of the strongest performing sectors where growth is outpacing inflation. Rent growth in these sectors has accelerated, and both are seeing growing demand.[ 2 ] Bond-like assets that have long-term leases with limited rent resets are more susceptible as rates rise. Sectors facing tenant demand headwinds, such as U.S. regional malls and urban office buildings, may not be able to command near-term rent increases that can keep up with inflation.

Cap rates have room for interest rates to rise. Today, real estate trades at a historically high premium to 10-year Treasuries, with the major sectors cap rate spread significantly wider than the historical average. Given this starting point, rising interest rates may not necessarily result in a commensurate increase in cap rates or decline in real estate values.[ 3 ][ 4 ]

Limited supply generally supports valuations. Supply, even within in-demand sectors like industrial [ 5 ], remains in check. In an inflationary environment, increases in the cost of land, construction, and labor are likely to make new supply less financially feasible, which is generally supportive of higher occupancies and stronger pricing power for existing assets.

Important Disclosures

The views expressed in this commentary are the views of Private Wealth Solutions group of Blackstone Inc. (together with its affiliates, “Blackstone”) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Blackstone itself. All information in this commentary is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this commentary was issued, and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

Investment concepts mentioned in this commentary may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Tax considerations, margin requirements, commissions and other transaction costs may significantly affect the economic consequences of any transaction. Concepts referenced in this commentary and should be reviewed carefully with one’s investment and tax advisors.

This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. This commentary discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic, market or political conditions and has not been provided in a fiduciary capacity under ERISA and should not be construed as research, legal, tax or investment advice, or any investment recommendation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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